Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Credit Crunch or Resource Crunch or Both

What bothers me a lot is our leaders go around talking and acting like we just have a credit crunch caused by the US finance industry. I am of the opinion that we face a double whammy with a Credit Crunch plus Resource Crunch. What I think hit most households in the UK was not an increase in Mortgage repayments ( Unless you happened to be re-mortgaging ) but rapid increases in the cost of Food, Petrol and especially Energy ( Gas & Electricity ). Part of the problem was laid at the state of the dollar, but most explanations were that there was too much demand for too little resource. Now the cost of Food has stabilised and possibly reducing a bit, Petrol has dropped from its peak and hopefully Energy bills will start to come down now the cost of Oil has dramatically reduced. The explanation for the reduced costs are down to reduction in demand due to the ensuing Recession. Now what I find very concerning is that surely the fundamental problem has not gone away. When countries start to come out of recession the effect of the Resource Crunch will come back and we once more be faced with an escalating price of Oil, Energy and Food. That's assume the cost of Food ever deflates. Now given that UK is predicted to be hit hardest with the recession, we will probably be the last to come out, faced with high Oil and Energy bills, exacerbated by low value of Sterling, high borrowing and high taxes. I can see it taking at least 10 years plus before we begin to see the light of day.

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